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Market note · September 2026
Explore Dubai luxury property trends
Dubai closed 2025 at a historic 205,431 deals and AED 544.2 billion. 2026 is the digestion year: volumes off the peak, luxury still printing, and a completion wave that will sort the buildings from the brochures.
AED 139.1bn
Q1 2026 residential sales
+21.5% year on year
AED 38.4bn
Luxury & ultra-luxury in Q1
840 homes above AED 20m
+79%
Ultra-luxury sales (AED 50m+)
The fastest-growing ticket
72%
Off-plan share of deals
Same as the 2025 record year
Two speeds. One city.
Late-cycle, not last-cycle.
The top is not the middle
Cavendish Maxwell counted AED 38.4 billion in Q1 across 840 homes above AED 20 million. Ultra-luxury (AED 50m+) rose nearly 79% year on year. Knight Frank logged 193 deals above US$10 million in the same quarter — the highest quarterly total on record. That is not JVC studios. Do not read city-wide averages as a Palm cheque.
Off-plan still runs the tape
Off-plan held 72% of Q1 transactions — 32,607 forward sales against 12,551 ready — and 71–76% through the summer. Off-plan villas and townhouses rose 27% year on year in Q2, with value up 83%. Luxury off-plan above AED 15 million was still 12% higher in August. The plan is the product. We issue today’s ladder, not last quarter’s launch PDF.
Price growth is cooling. That is useful.
City-wide values were up about 9.6–10.5% year on year in Q1, the slowest annual clip in three years. Rents rose 10.2%, the slowest since 2022. After a record 2025, a slower tape is how a buyer gets a stack instead of a ballot. 81% of tracked communities were still up on the year by mid-summer — Palm Jumeirah Garden Homes villas +37%, Al Jaddaf apartments +35.5%.
The 2027 delivery wall
About 74,100 homes are expected to complete in 2026, weighted to apartments. 2027 could see around 160,700. Nearly 70% of the 397,000 units due through 2028 land in those two years. Overlapping apartment launches will compete. Beach, villas and named water will not. Select the building. Phasing and the developer’s balance sheet matter more than the masterplan render.
Sources: Knight Frank Dubai Residential Q1 2026; Cavendish Maxwell Q1 2026; Dubai Land Department via Betterhomes / summer 2026 prints; Penthouse.ae ultra-luxury 2025. Figures as published — we confirm live availability on the unit.
Price bands
What a foot actually costs
City-wide average
AED 1,683–1,933 / sq ft
Annual growth slowed to ~10%
Prime ten neighbourhoods
AED 4,317 / sq ft
+13% year on year, Knight Frank
Villas
AED 2,369 / sq ft
+13.5% YoY — still the scarce product
Apartments
AED 1,872 / sq ft
Volume engine; more supply ahead
Explorer · September 2026
Where the tape is printing
AED 20m+ and the water. Palm Jebel Ali led ultra-luxury value in 2025.
In the collection
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How we read 2026
At the top, yes. Homes above AED 20m rose more than 25% in Q1; the AED 50m+ band jumped nearly 79%. City-wide price growth has slowed to high-single / low-double digits — late-cycle, not a crash.